The PSC would win the next Catalan elections, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The poll presented today by the body led by José Félix Tezanos gives victory to the Socialists, who would compete for the first place in seats with ERC , a party that to date was the favorite in most polls.
The other great novelty appears in the lower zone, where Vox would be in a position to win the PP in its irruption in the Parliament . Both data would be a dream scenario for Pedro Sánchez if it were confirmed at the polls.
The candidacy headed by the still Minister of Health, Salvador Illa , would achieve 23.9% of the votes, while the Republicans, in second position, would stay more than three points ( 20.6% ) in an election whose date definitive has remained in the hands of the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia .
With this estimate, both parties would compete for victory in seats with ranges that would go between 30 and 35 minutes, in the case of the PSC, and from 31 to 33 for the Republicans.
The third place would go to Junts per Catalunya (with a support of 12.5% and between 20 and 27 deputies), which would see any probability of winning against all odds against Esquerra, as happened in the 2017 call, when Carles Puigdemont capitalized on the campaign struggle, fueling the expectations of being elected president again despite having fled to Belgium.
The CIS survey predicts the disaster for Ciudadanos , which after winning the previous elections would fall to fourth place. The list headed by Carlos Carrizosa would obtain between 13 and 15 seats with 9.6% of the votes, a percentage even lower than that of En Comú Podem (9.7%), which would occupy 9 to 12 seats in Parliament.
The other particularly striking fact in this study is the progress of Vox , which for the first time would be in a position to surpass the PP upon its entry into the Autonomous Chamber. The vote estimate of the party chaired by Santiago Abascal is eight tenths higher than that of the popular (6.6% compared to 5.8%).
Consequently, the candidacy of Ignacio Garriga would get 6 to 10 representatives in the hemicycle, so he would have enough options to advance the list of Alejandro Fernández , who would be left with seven.
With these results, the independence movement would not have guaranteed an absolute majority of 68 seats. According to the estimate attributed to the CUP ( 8-11 ), the sum of ERC, Junts and the anti-capitalists (the PDeCAT of Àngels Chacón would not obtain representation) would reach 59 deputies in its lowest range, but would reach 71 in the lowest prediction high.
On the other hand, although both Esquerra and the PSC have rejected on several occasions the possibility of reissuing a tripartite party , the sum of these two parties with the commons would allow the formation of a left-wing government to three in any scenario.
The CIS vote estimate also throws another bad news for the secessionist formations, which, far from reaching the goal of collecting more than 50% of the votes, would remain two tenths below 40% . Instead, the electoral support of the PSC, Cs, En Comú Podem, PP and Vox would reach 55.6% .
The demographic study includes 4,106 interviews conducted between January 2 and 15 , that is, a few days after the appointment of Illa as a candidate for the PSC to replace Miquel Iceta was known . Precisely, the minister is the leader best valued by those surveyed to preside over the Generalitat .
The 22% of voters would prefer the Socialist leader, well above those who prefer to Laura Borras ( 11.1% ) or Pere Aragonès ( 9% ). The head of the Ministry of Health is also the only Catalan politician who obtains a pass ( 5), followed also by their most direct rivals, the top of the list Junts and ERC, who tie with 4.6 .